Skip to main content

Research

All Models Are Wrong – But Some Might Be OK

What if your most sophisticated model is wrong? A model can be backed by vast amounts of data and still misrepresent reality. More data may only make the wrong answer look more convincing. The key is to ask: what does the model assume, and what if it’s wrong?

Disclaimer

This website and the products and services described therein are intended only for Professional Investors in the European Union (as defined under Annex II of MiFID II) and the United Kingdom (as defined in the FCA Conduct of Business Sourcebook). The products and services described are not suitable for retail investors and must not be accessed or relied upon by retail investors.

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may receive back less than the amount you invested. You should only invest if you are prepared to lose some or all of your investment. Future returns are not guaranteed.