After fears of rising interest rates and bond market volatility rocked global markets last year, the consensus is now swinging back to the low economic growth / low interest rates narrative.
Sometimes opportunities arise because market participants cause pricing in a particular segment of the market to become highly skewed in one direction.
It’s that time of year when inboxes get flooded with 2019 economic and financial market forecasts. As the CFA institute points out, at the beginning of 2018 the median analyst forecast for the S&P 500 calendar year return was +10.3%. The actual result ended up being -6.2%.
A primary focus for global financial markets in Q4 2018 was the growing fear that the FED has tightened monetary policy too far, too fast and risks tipping the US economy into recession. This culminated in a severe global equity sell-off, which accelerated after the December FED meeting.
Following last week’s meeting of the US Federal Reserve (FED), markets have become increasingly concerned that the FED is making a policy mistake in continuing to increase interest rates.
Tom Piotrowski speaks with Ardea IM’s Gopi Karunakaran regarding rising US interest rates, the outlook for Australian interest rates and the ActiveX Ardea Real Outcome Bond Fund (Managed Fund) (XARO).
Recently in the AFR, Tamar Hamlyn discusses how the past weeks and months have seen financial markets approaching the year-end period with decidedly less lustre than investors might like.
Even if you have no exposure to fixed income, interest rates still matter … a lot.
The cross currency basis arises when pricing in the foreign exchange market diverges from what interest rate differentials would imply. This divergence creates a small additional return above the domestic interest rate.
Conventional portfolio construction assumes that governments bonds will diversify equity risk. The theory is that when equities fall, bond yields decline, resulting in capital gains on bonds that help offset equity losses. The problem is that it’s not working that way in practice.
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