Thinking uncertainly vs thinking volatility. These two market views are creating something of a conundrum in interest rate markets at the moment.
Increasing issuance of inflation linked bonds in New Zealand has resulted in a NZD 14 billion market, accounting for close to 20% of the NZ government bond market. NZ ILBs offer an attractive real yield and a low entry point for breakeven inflation.
Over the first half of 2014 financial markets experienced a significant decline in bond yields, with a correspondingly strong period of performance.
Following recent upside surprises in inflation, and the move to a neutral stance by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), we highlight the likely implications for returns on nominal and inflation protected fixed income portfolios.