And it’s what’s driving the disconnect between bond and equity performance in 2019.
Everyone has an opinion but does anyone really know?
It’s that time of year when inboxes get flooded with 2019 economic and financial market forecasts. As the CFA institute points out, at the beginning of 2018 the median analyst forecast for the S&P 500 calendar year return was +10.3%. The actual result ended up being -6.2%.
A primary focus for global financial markets in Q4 2018 was the growing fear that the FED has tightened monetary policy too far, too fast and risks tipping the US economy into recession. This culminated in a severe global equity sell-off, which accelerated after the December FED meeting.
This Livewire exclusive discusses the global shift in central bank policy as a key driver of recent volatility and what to expect moving forward.
For the first time in recent history there are now more job openings than job seekers
We’ve covered US wage growth and the resulting upside risk to inflation in a number of prior commentaries and now see more leading indicators suggesting that theme is accelerating.
Investment grade (IG) credit has been one of the worst performing asset classes so far this year, and its largest segment – USD IG credit – has been the worst hit.
Tamar Hamlyn discusses inflation with Livewire and if this is about to change.
Despite strong domestic job creation, wage growth in Australia remains subdued and is part of the reason we believe the RBA’s policy tightening cycle will lag the US.