Market Insights

Why do you pay attention to financial forecasts?

It’s that time of year when inboxes get flooded with 2019 economic and financial market forecasts. As the CFA institute points out, at the beginning of 2018 the median analyst forecast for the S&P 500 calendar year return was +10.3%. The actual result ended up being -6.2%.

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The central bank bar tab

A primary focus for global financial markets in Q4 2018 was the growing fear that the FED has tightened monetary policy too far, too fast and risks tipping the US economy into recession. This culminated in a severe global equity sell-off, which accelerated after the December FED meeting.

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Market inefficiency is a growing opportunity in fixed income

In a theoretically efficient fixed income market, closely related bonds (or derivatives) with similar risk characteristics would always be priced the same. In reality, these prices persistently diverge from each other, which means fixed income markets are inefficient.

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Credit is the Canary

Following last week’s meeting of the US Federal Reserve (FED), markets have become increasingly concerned that the FED is making a policy mistake in continuing to increase interest rates.

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Commsec Executive Series

Tom Piotrowski speaks with Ardea’s Gopi Karunakaran regarding rising US interest rates, the outlook for Australian interest rates and the ActiveX Ardea Real Outcome Bond Fund (Managed Fund) (XARO).

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