A primary focus for global financial markets in Q4 2018 was the growing fear that the FED has tightened monetary policy too far, too fast and risks tipping the US economy into recession. This culminated in a severe global equity sell-off, which accelerated after the December FED meeting.
We’re normally circumspect about the “EM contagion” narrative as it usually ends up being more headline noise than substance, but this time we’re paying closer attention
What does the yield on a 3 month US T Bill have to do with the price of a holiday in Argentina? Plenty, if you follow the chain of events that have driven capital flows since the 2008 financial crisis.
We’ve noted previously that the transition from Quantitative Easing (QE) to Quantitative Tightening (QT) is one of the two important paradigm shifts currently taking place in markets.
It’s our view that there is a paradigm shift currently taking place.
In July 2007, then Citigroup CEO Chuck Prince infamously said “…as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing.”, and the rest is history.
The FED has announced its much anticipated plan to start gradually shrinking its balance sheet.
Thinking uncertainly vs thinking volatility. These two market views are creating something of a conundrum in interest rate markets at the moment.