What does the yield on a 3 month US T Bill have to do with the price of a holiday in Argentina? Plenty, if you follow the chain of events that have driven capital flows since the 2008 financial crisis.
Continuing the theme of tightening liquidity, Italian govt. bond markets are noteworthy as an early warning indicator.
We’ve noted previously that the transition from Quantitative Easing (QE) to Quantitative Tightening (QT) is one of the two important paradigm shifts currently taking place in markets.
It’s our view that there is a paradigm shift currently taking place.
In July 2007, then Citigroup CEO Chuck Prince infamously said “…as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing.”, and the rest is history.
The FED has announced its much anticipated plan to start gradually shrinking its balance sheet.