And it’s what’s driving the disconnect between bond and equity performance in 2019.
Conventional thinking about bond-equity relationships currently poses a paradox – the resolution to this seeming paradox is the changing bond-equity correlation.
It’s that time of year when inboxes get flooded with 2019 economic and financial market forecasts. As the CFA institute points out, at the beginning of 2018 the median analyst forecast for the S&P 500 calendar year return was +10.3%. The actual result ended up being -6.2%.
A primary focus for global financial markets in Q4 2018 was the growing fear that the FED has tightened monetary policy too far, too fast and risks tipping the US economy into recession. This culminated in a severe global equity sell-off, which accelerated after the December FED meeting.
Following last week’s meeting of the US Federal Reserve (FED), markets have become increasingly concerned that the FED is making a policy mistake in continuing to increase interest rates.
Conventional portfolio construction assumes that governments bonds will diversify equity risk. The theory is that when equities fall, bond yields decline, resulting in capital gains on bonds that help offset equity losses. The problem is that it’s not working that way in practice.
We’re normally circumspect about the “EM contagion” narrative as it usually ends up being more headline noise than substance, but this time we’re paying closer attention
Recent volatility in Japanese government bonds (JGB) highlights the fact that government bonds aren’t so ‘safe’ when yields are very low.
We’ve noted previously that the transition from Quantitative Easing (QE) to Quantitative Tightening (QT) is one of the two important paradigm shifts currently taking place in markets.
In July 2007, then Citigroup CEO Chuck Prince infamously said “…as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing.”, and the rest is history.